It’s not surprising that the Colts have struggled in a matchup like this. The familiarity of divisional matchups tends to be an equalizer. And as a dome team, the Colts are not used to playing in the hot and humid Jacksonville climate.
But there’s much more than just a streak that favors Jacksonville in this game. The Colts’ best player on defense (LB Shaquille Leonard) has been ruled out for the second straight week.
Their best pass catcher (WR Michael Pittman) was downgraded from a limited practice participant on Wednesday to a DNP on Thursday and Friday with a quad issue. Another one of their starting WRs (Alec Pierce) was ruled out with a concussion.
While Daniel Jones is 13-6 (68%) ATS on the road, he’s just 7-12 (37%) ATS at home. This is still an offense that was held scoreless for the first 34 minutes of the game in Week 1, one that featured Richie James Jr. as its top target and
David Sills as a WR who ran a route 57% of the time. And one whose most explosive pass catchers — Wan’Dale Robinson (out-knee) and Kadarius Toney (questionable-hamstring) — are both hurt.
The Panthers will be able to use Christian McCaffrey to exploit a Giants linebacking corps that is absolutely horrendous in pass coverage. The Giants’ starting linebackers are Tae Crowder and Austin Calitro. Crowder has earned a bottom-
15 percentile coverage grade from PFF every year of his career. Calitro is an undrafted free agent from 2017 who made his first start in nearly three years last week, grading out as the worst linebacker in the league in coverage.
Combined, those LBs allowed seven completions on eight targets for 102 yards and two TDs, with both scores going to RB Dontrell Hilliard. Good luck with CMC.
The Giants will also be without lost No. 2 cornerback Aaron Robinson. Adoree Jackson is great, but he can’t cover D.J. Moore and Robbie Anderson at the same time.
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As I’ve pointed out many times, the key to beating Baker Mayfield is getting pressure. The Browns were able to do that, pressuring him on 42.4% of his dropbacks last week, fifth-highest of Week 1.
The Giants, meanwhile, registered a pressure on only 25.4% of Ryan Tannehill’s dropbacks, fifth-lowest — and that was with them blitzing on 45.7% of his dropbacks.
Per Action Labs, Week 2 ‘dogs coming off a close loss close by four or fewer points are 26-14 (65%) ATS in Week 2 since 2005. And during that same span, ‘dogs by 6 points or fewer coming off an ATS loss in Week 1 have gone 56-32-2 (64%) in Week 2.
