intriguing fight, because the Liam Wilson bout showed us that Navarrete could have more trouble at 130 than he did at 122 or 126, which is normal and natural. Fighters are getting bigger.
and frankly, there’s more and more tape (or MP4, I guess) on Navarrete every time he fights, and he’s been fighting regularly on TV for years now. His awkward style is more scoutable every time he fights.
Valdez is good, but I haven’t been terrible enthused with a performance of his for a long time now. When he thrashed Miguel Berchelt, that came with Berchelt barfing in a bucket to make weight and looking like double-fried
nothing in the ring. Oscar has never really looked great at 130 other than that one, and he’s had three fights since. Shakur’s one thing, but laboring through wins over Robson Conceicao and Adam Lopez is another.
I do think Valdez can win, though. Just saying there are more questions than confidence on both sides for me going in here. I’m going to go with Navarrete. Valdez just looks a little
shopworn at 32 and he’s been fighting his own natural instincts as much as anything since the Quigg fight. I think it’ll be competitive and good TV, but “Vaquero” gets the W, he’ll just have a little bit more in the tank and a little bit more will to see out the rough spots and overcome
keep coming back to Navarrete’s eagerness to mix it up. He’s not a conventional guy, not a tactician, and his physical advantages are only useful so long as he keeps the fight at range.
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How long do we really think that will last? And when things inevitably move in tight, then what happens? No disrespect to Liam Wilson, but if he could rock and almost finish Navarrete, Valdez can do it, too.
Either Navarrete uses his physical advantages with a patience and rigor he’s never really shown us before, or Valdez will get the opportunities he needs to end the fight early. Give me the Valdez we’ve seen before over the Navarrete we never really have.
There’s a bit more to it, namely the fact that Navarrete spent the first half of the Wilson fight stuck in the mud, but that’s where I’m at right now. It really boils down to whether Navarrete can deal with the check hook; he’s crafty enough to keep Valdez at the end of his punches, but that flash of mortality has me worried.
I’ve flip-flopped back and forth, but I’ll be an optimist and lean towards Navarrete. Now that he’s had some ring time at 130, I expect a return to his usual output. Between his length and maneuverability and Valdez’s inability to hurt opponents who aren’t clearly compromised, I like him to overpower Valdez to a competitive decision win.
